Environment and Energy in year 2021

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Pereira, A. O., Soares, J. B., Oliveira R. G. and Queiroz, R. P. 2008. Energy
in Brazil: Toward sustainable development. Energy Policy. 36: 73-83.
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Federative Republic of Brazil
The world’s fifth largest country
Over 192 million people
Portuguese-speaking country
The world’s seventh largest by nominal GDP
One of BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) country
Various but most of the country is tropical climate
The Amazon Rainforest, the largest tropical forest in the world with
greatest biodiversity
 The natural heritage threatened by agriculture, wildlife trade, dams
etc.
Scenarios of demand energy 2030
TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent) - a unit of energy, the
amount of energy released by burning one ton of crude oil
Projection energy supply
Non renewable energy (unit-mil toe)
350,000
Renewable energy (unit-mil toe)
300,000
Uranium (U3O8) and
300,000
its derivatives
250,000
Coal and its derivatives
200,000
150,000
Natural gas
100,000
Oil and oil products
50,000
Other primary
250,000
renewable sources
200,000
Sugarcane and
derivatives
150,000
Firewood and charcoal
100,000
Hydraulic and electric
50,000
0
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2005
2010
2020
2030
Energy consumption
103 toe
50000
40000
Charcoal
Electricity
30000
Kerosene
LPG
20000
Wood
Natural gas
10000
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
International comparison of per person
consumption of electric energy
Energy intensity by sector
Residential
(toe/thous. homes)
800
700
800
600
Total
500
Transport
400
Services
300
Agriculture
200
Industry
100
600
400
200
0
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2005
2010
2020
2030
Energy intensity : a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation's economy. It is calculated as units of energy
per unit of GDP.
International comparison of total per
person consumption of energy
Production indicators
• The production of all the sources
increases with reduction, on average,
of transformation and distribution
losses. The indicators show that
there is great availability of
resources in the MEN(Matriz
Energetica Nacional 2030) 2030
horizon under consideration.
Diversification of sources
Energy import dependency
•
The energy import dependency, defined as the relationship between energy demand (including
transformation, distribution and storage losses) and energy supply, decreases during the first 15 years
of the projection timeframe, reverting that tendency at the end of the period as a result of the growth
in demand, associated with the expansion of the economy and the hypothetical evolution in the
reserves and production of oil and natural gas. But, it does not exceed 11% in 2030.
Environmental dimension
• The environmental impacts depend in a large part on
how much energy is consumed and produced and on
the type of energy used.
• The environmental indicators are divided into three
themes: atmosphere, water and land.
Environmental energy indicator
Theme
Subtheme
Energy indicator
Atmosphere
Climate change
Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production and use
per capita and per unit of GDP
Air quality
Concentrations of air pollutants in urban areas
Air pollutant emissions from energy systems
Water
Water quality
Discharges in liquid effluents from energy systems
Land
Soil quality
Area where acidification exceeds critical load
Forest
Rate of deforestation attributed to energy use
Solid waste generation and
management
Ratio of solid waste generation to units of energy produced
Ratio of solid waste properly disposed of to total generated
solid waste
Ratio of solid radioactive waste to units of energy produced
Ratio of solid radioactive waste awaiting disposal to total
generated solid radioactive waste
Atmosphere – CO2
International comparison of total per person CO2 emissions
•The national economy’s CO2 emissions are little intensive in carbon .
•Structural decomposition analysis can help to determine more precisely the direct and
indirect emissions of the economy’s production
Land use
2008
•The theme land, in Brazil, is very
sensitive because agriculture is an
activity of great importance for the
economy.
•The country has a huge availability of
land and the agriculture activity
expansion does not imply necessarily in
deforestation.
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
10 milion ha
%
Water
•Agriculture, hydropower plants are another
issue very sensitive in Brazil.
•There is a vast resource that is still
unexplored.
•It happens that about 70% of the hydraulic
potential to be taken advantage of is in
Amazonia and in the Cerrado, biomes that
cover approximately two-thirds of the national
territory and that very clearly reflect the
arguments and difficulties arising in the
definition of policies and practices of
sustainable environmental management.
•The Plan of Electrical Energy Expansion
between 2006 and 2015, the total area
inundated by the hydropower plants will be 6.4
million hectares, that represents 1.6% of
Amazon forest plus the areas of environmental
protection.
THANKS
If nature were not beautiful,
it would not be worth knowing,
and if nature were not worth knowing,
life would not be worth living”
-Henri Poincare-
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