Stable growth with a more balanced demand structure

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This CICC report is provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]
Macroeconomy Research
October 31, 2016
China Macro Thematic Report
Stable growth with a more balanced demand structure
2017 China Macro Outlook
We maintain our 2016 real GDP growth forecast at 6.7% YoY, and
adjust our 2017 real GDP growth forecast to 6.6% YoY from 6.7%
Yo Y. Meanwhile, we expect nominal GDP growth to edge up to 8.3%
Yo Y in 2017 from 8.0% YoY in 2016. Our forecasts are slightly higher
than the current consensus real GDP growth forecasts of 6.6% YoY and 6.3%
YoY for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Furthermore, we expect real GDP growth
to edge down to 6.5% YoY in 2018. Consumption will likely contribute
more to the headline GDP growth in 2017, fixed asset investment growth
is expected to soften moderately, and external demand may improve.
Hong LIANG
A naly st
S A C Reg. N o.: S 0080513050005
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Eva YI
A naly st
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ev a.y [email protected]
CPI inflation is estimated to be at around 1.7% YoY in 2017, and
average PPI may recover further to 1.9% YoY in 2017 from -1.6%
Yo Y in 2016. As a result, GDP deflator will likely pick up to 1.6% YoY in 2017
from 1.1% YoY in 2016.
In our view, monetary policy has little room to ease further in the
near term given that real interest rates have fallen significantly on the back of
rising inflation, particularly property price inflation. We expect no change to
the benchmark interest rates in 2017. The PBoC may lower the 7-day reverse
repurchase rate by 10bp in 2H2017. Meanwhile, there may be 1 RRR cut in
2H17. We expect USD/CNY to trade at around 6.78 by end-2016 and
6.98 by end-2017.
Fiscal policy is likely to remain a key driver of growth support in
2017, but the policy mix may tilt towards promoting consumer
demand vs. investment spending. We will likely see more efforts towards
tax cuts and subsidies to promote personal income & consumption growth, as
well as increased public spending on education, health care and poverty
alleviation.
We expect further progress to be made in the areas of fiscal, hukou,
and land reforms to expedite China’s transition towards a more
consumer-driven economy. Meanwhile, progress in SOE reforms may
revolve around a more market -oriented framework for mixed ownership
structure reform, SOE exits, and opening up more of the regulated industries.
We see the risks to our 2017 growth and inflation forecasts as
balanced. The main macro and market uncertainties lay in a
sharper-than-expected property market correction, policy risks associated with
stricter financial market regulation, and potential external demand volatility.
On the other hand, the upside risks include stronger-than-expected personal
consumption and investment demand, as well as faster external demand
growth.
The growth structure and policy mix next year will likely benefit
personal consumption the most. We also expect a more stable macro
backdrop and abundant liquidity to support investment in the secular growth
sectors and new industries.
Related reports
•
Mac roeconomy | A n update on "where is
fis c al policy going?" (2 016.10.27)
•
Mac roeconomy | I f the MPA is s tric tly
enforc ed... (2 0 1 6.10.2 7)
•
Mac roeconomy
|
Ups tream
expanded,
but
midstream
c ontracted (2 016.10.27)
•
Mac roeconomy | O c tober 17 ~21 : Some
early signs of c yclical momentum peaking?
(2 0 1 6.10.2 4)
•
Mac roeconomy | H ow to interpret "the boost
to G DP from the property s ector"?
(2 0 1 6.10.2 4)
•
Mac roeconomy | FX pos ition dec line widens ,
while
liquidity
injection
inc reases
(2 0 1 6.10.2 2)
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margin
margin
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CICC Research: October 31, 2016
Stable growth with a more balanced demand
structure
Part I: 2017 growth outlook
We maintain our 2016 real GDP growth forecast at 6.7% YoY, and adjust our
2017 real GDP growth forecast to 6.6% YoY from 6.7% YoY prev iously. Our
forecasts are slightly higher than the current consensus real GDP forecasts of 6.6% YoY
and 6.3% YoY for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Further more, we expect real GDP
growth to edge down to 6.5% YoY in 2018. Please refer to Figure 1 for a summary of
our forecasts for main macro and policy indicators in 2017~2018.
Meanwhile, we expect nominal GDP gr owth to pick up moderately to 8.3%
YoY in 2017 from 8.0% YoY in 2016. However, the incremental acceleration in
nominal GDP growth may be milder in 2017 compared with 2016 (1.6ppt acceleration of
nominal GDP growth from 2015), especially in the secondar y industr y and real estate
service sector.
Figure 1: Summary of our forecast for 2017~2018
% change, unless otherwise stated
2014
2015
Nominal GDP
yoy
qoq, ann.
yoy
7.3
8.2
6.9
6.4
6.7
8.0
6.6
8.3
IP
Nominal urban FAI
Nominal Retail Sales
yoy
yoy
yoy
8.3
15.0
11.9
6.3
9.9
10.7
5.9
8.2
10.5
Customs Exports
Customs Imports
yoy
yoy
6.0
0.7
-2.6
-14.4
M2 Supply
RMB New Loans
yoy
RMB trn
12.2
9.8
CPI
PPI
GDP Deflator
yoy
yoy
yoy
1Yr Benchmark Lending
1Yr Benchmark Deposit
7 day reverse repo rate
RRR (large banks)
USD/CNY
Real GDP
1Q2016
2Q2016
6.5
8.0
6.7
6.4
7.1
6.7
7.3
7.3
6.7
7.0
7.8
6.7
6.3
9.3
6.7
6.0
8.9
6.6
7.0
8.5
6.6
7.0
8.1
6.6
6.6
7.8
5.8
8.8
10.8
5.5
8.0
10.7
5.8
10.7
10.3
6.0
8.1
10.2
6.0
7.1
10.5
6.0
8.2
10.7
6.1
7.4
10.8
5.9
8.6
10.6
5.8
10.2
10.9
5.5
8.1
10.9
-6.7
-7.3
-0.5
1.6
0.9
1.0
-9.7
-13.3
-4.4
-6.7
-6.7
-4.7
-6.5
-5.2
-0.3
10.5
-2.4
-0.8
0.2
-0.4
0.5
-1.3
13.3
11.7
11.8
12.1
12.0
13.8
12.0
15.6
13.4
4.6
11.8
2.9
11.5
2.6
11.8
2.0
11.9
4.6
12.3
3.7
12.1
2.7
12.0
2.7
2.0
-1.9
0.9
1.4
-5.2
-0.4
1.9
-1.6
1.1
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.0
1.4
2.1
-4.8
0.4
2.1
-2.9
0.6
1.7
-0.8
1.0
1.9
2.1
2.4
1.6
3.0
2.1
1.5
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.8
0.6
1.1
%p.a.
%p.a.
%p.a.
5.60
2.75
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.15
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.25
4.35
1.50
2.15
4.35
1.50
2.15
%
Market
20.0
6.21
17.5
6.46
17.0
6.78
16.5
6.98
17.0
6.46
17.0
6.63
17.0
6.68
17.0
6.78
17.0
17.0
16.5
16.5
6.98
2.1
2.3
3.0
3.0
Budget fiscal balance by NPC % of GDP
2016E 2017E 2018E
3Q2016 4Q2016E 1Q2017E 2Q2017E 3Q2017E 4Q2017E
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
From the aggregate demand perspective, we expect consumpt ion to contribute
more to the headline GDP grow th compared with 2016, underlying FAI growth to
soften modestly, and external demand to recover moderately.
►
1
We expect consumpt ion growth, especially that of discretionary
consumpt ion, to pick up in 2017. Our more upbeat view on consumption is
based on 1) continued increase in the share of household disposable income in
GDP (Figure 2) and growing transfer payments to subsidize lower-income families; 1
See China Macro Weekly, Can consumption growth continue to decouple? February 15, 2016
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2) grow th of sales of large-ticket items and highly-discretionar y expenditure will
likely recover after the property market peaks (Figure 3), as a net increase of down
payments in the past 12 months alone has taken away the household
“consumption power” equivalent to 4 ~5% of annual disposable income; 2 3)
housing-related consumption may stay robust in the 2~3 quarters after the
property boom; and 4) the positive wealth effect from property price inflation may
boost consumption growth in the 4~5 quarters that follow.
►
Real fixed asset investment growth may soften in 2017, but only at a
moderate pace. Nominal FAI grow th may pick up in 2017 on higher annual
average PPI. It is wor th reiterating that the nominal urban FAI reported monthly is
plagued with data quality issues and fails to represent the underlying strength of
FAI this year, especially with the abnormal >60% YoY drop in Liaoning FAI YTD. 3
We expect property invest ment growth to moderate in 2017 amidst
policy tightening; however, the dampening effect on investment will
likely be manageable as property investment grow th did not show significant
improvement this year. In addition, the current level of property inventor y remains
low in the leading cities. Infrastructure investment growth will likely hold
up in 2017, as the considerable fiscal loosening in 2016 (growth of 40~50% YoY
in value and an increase of 2. 3ppt in relative scale to GDP) will continue to support
government-led investment in the near term, w hile PPP investment growth may
also step up in 2017. 4 More important ly, manufactur ing investment and
private invest ment growth may be on the mend in 2017, as real interest
rates for manufacturers started to fall substantially and industrial profitability
recovered notably in 2016 (Figure 4). Meanwhile, the opportunity cost for private
FAI has also declined fur ther in 2016 with lower wealth management product yield
/ money mar ket rates (Figure 5), and more recently, less perceived upside in
property investment.
►
External demand may also improve in 2017, as indicated by the leading
indicators of the global industr ial cycle (Figure 6). Overseas private
investment may recover in 2017 as political uncer tainties in 2016 subside,
especially in the US. Fur thermore, a potential pick-up in infrastructure investment
in the US may add to the upside of external demand.
Sector wise, we expect stable YoY grow th of the manufacturing sector, with faster
growth of consumer related products and marginally softer grow th of investment
products. In the meantime, the headline growth of financial sector may improve as the
base effect becomes more favorable. Fur thermore, the growth of consumer services
may edge up, while the growth of real estate services may weaken.
2
See China Macro Weekly, How to interpret the “boost to GDP from the property sector”? October 24, 2016
Please refer to the 3 reports we have written on the data quality issue of monthly FAI for more details on this topic: 1) China Macro Weekly, How
much should we read into the monthly FAI data? August 15, 2016; 2) China Macro Thematic Report, Overstated statistics distort FAI growth rates,
August 9, 2016; 3) China Macro Brief, What happened to Liaoning’s FAI? July 28, 2016.
4
See China Macro Brief, An update on “Where is fiscal policy going?” October 27, 2016; China Macro Thematic Report, Where may fiscal policy go
from here? September 1, 2016
3
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Figure 2: Share of personal income and
consumption are both on the rise
Figure 3: A visible negative correlation between
property transactions and large-ticket
discretionary consumption since 2009
%
% chg yoy
140
70
Disposable income*/GDP
65
% chg yoy
70
property trasnaction value, 5M mid-point moving
avg.
overseas air travel volume, 5M mid-point moving
avg., right scale
120
Consumption/GDP
100
63%
60
55
50
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
45
*Disposable income before 2014 is from Flow of Funds Accounts; data after 2014 is calculated by disposable income per capital * total
population; 2016E disposable income is estimated by 2016 YTD growth (8.4%) of disposable income
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0
0
-20
-10
-40
-20
-60
2007
-30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source:
Figure 4: Lower real interest for manufacturers
may boost manufacturing and private investment
Figure 5: The "opportunity cost" for private FAI
continues to decline
% yoy
30
means lower real
interest rate
20
Real private FAI growth*
10
Real manufacturing FAI growth*,
5M mid-point moving avg.
0
Real interest rate for producers**,
8-month lead, reversed, RHS
-10
CEIC, CICC Research
%, p.a.
%, p.a.
40
-4
7.0
-2
6.5
0
6.0
2
5.5
4
5.0
6
4.5
8
4.0
10
3.5
12
3.0
14
2.5
16
2.0
WMP expected return
Yu'e Bao annualized yield
3.88%
2.39%
* Manufacturing FAI growth and private FAI growth are both deflated by PPI
** Real interest rate for producers = benchmark 1 year lending rate - PPI inflation
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
Source:
Wind Info, CICC Research
Figure 6: Global industrial cycle appears to be on
the mend
61
%
Manufacturing PMI Index
59
US
Euro area
50
80
Source: Wind Info, CICC Research
50
60
UK
57
55
53
51
49
47
45
Source: Wind Info, CICC Research
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Part II: 2017 inflation outlook
CPI inflat ion is estimated to be around 1.7% YoY in 2017. We expect moderate
consumer price inflation next year, as both M2 and bank asset growth peaked in 1Q16,
and the economic growth is not r unning above trend. Within CPI, we expect food price
inflation to be relatively muted in 2017, while consumer price inflation of services and
residences may continue to be lifted by the delayed effect of property price inflation in
the near term.
Although annual average PPI may recover further to 1.9% YoY in 2017 from
-1.6% YoY in 2016, the incremental impr ovement of PPI in 2017 is unlikely
to match the pace in 2016. We expect PPI inflation to continue rising rapidly before
the 2017 Chinese New Year as the base will keep descending rapidly till then, while the
short supply of coal and some other commodities may persist, especially in the face of
the winter peak season. Assuming some moderation of supply side constraints after
Chinese New Year and a lower oil price from here (our average oil price forecast for
2017 stands at US$42/bbl) , we expect PPI to peak in February 2017 and start
moderating in the rest of 2017.
As a result, GDP deflator may pick up to an average of 1.6% YoY in 2017
from 1.1% YoY in 2016, mainly boosted by higher annual average PPI, while
property price inflation will likely moderate over the course of 2017.
Part III: 2017 macro policy outlook
In our view, monetary policy has little room to ease further in the near term
given that real interest rates have fallen significant ly on the back of rising
inflation, part icular ly property price inflat ion (Figure 7). We see enough fuel in
the tank to maintain a relatively stable growth trajector y in the near term from the
accumulated monetar y and fiscal loosening since 2015. On the other hand, the recent
trend in inflation is not supportive of monetar y easing, with CPI standing at around 2%
in the rest of 2016, PPI rising rapidly, and property price inflation staying elevated at the
moment.
We expect no change to the benchmar k interest rates in 2017. In our view, the
room for monetar y easing remains limited in 2017, especially in 1H, as the
weighted-average real interest may stays low and the economic growth is likely to
remain stable. Furthermore, the Fed may continue on the “slow -but-steady rate hike
path”. However, if PPI moderates and property prices begin to soften in 2H17,
the PBoC may consider lower ing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate
marginally (by 10bp); meanwhile, we expect one 50bp RRR cut in 2H17. It is
worth noting that apar t from the RRR cut, money supply growth can be lifted via
expansion of the base money through more PBoC OMO net injection, and/or lifting the
money multiplier with faster expansion of the policy bank assets.
We expect USD/ CNY to trade around 6.78 by end-2016 and 6.98 by
end-2017, indicating around 3% depreciation in the course of 2017. The CNY
depreciation pressure will likely remain manageable in 2017; given 1) our baseline
scenario of one 25bp hike in the Federal Funds Rate in 2017, indicating moderate
appreciation pressure of the USD, and 2) our continued expectation for a sizable trade
surplus in 2017 at around US$530bn, or 4.2% of GDP.
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Figure 7: Real interest rates have fallen significantly on the back of rising
inflation
14
% p.a.
real interest rate for consumers
12
real interest rate for producers
real interest rate for home buyers
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
3/2012
9/2012
3/2013
9/2013
3/2014
9/2014
3/2015
9/2015
3/2016
9/2016
real interest rate for consumers = benchmark 1 year saving rate - CPI inflation
real interest rate for producers = benchmark 1 year lending rate - PPI inflation
real interest rate for home buyers = benchmark mortgage rate - 70 city average housing price inflation
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
Fiscal policy is likely to remain a key dr iver of growth support in 2017, but
the policy mix may tilt towar ds promoting consumer demand vs. invest ment
spending. We will likely see more efforts towards tax cuts and subsidies to
promote personal income & consumption growth, as well as increased public
spending in education, health care and poverty alleviat ion. As we have
discussed in recent reports, 5 the “broadly defined fiscal deficit” may approach 10% of
GDP in 2016, setting up a high base for 2017. T herefore, it has become more pressing
to boost the “efficiency” (i.e. investment return) of fiscal expansion next year. We
expect the corporate tax-reduction effect of VAT reform to remain in force in 1H17,
while more policy efforts may be directed towards tax and subsidy policies to boost
consumption growth. Tax cuts and personal consumption subsidies have proven to be
more effective than infrastructure investment in raising corporate sector profitability
and overall demand.
Further more, we expect the realm of fiscal policy to expand to more sizable
investment in PPP projects, implying more financing from commercial bank lending
to support the fiscal policy initiatives. In this regard, our guideline for filtering out the
potential “noise” or “exaggeration” of the stunning reported headline “planned PPP
investments” is to focus on actual financial activity as a leading indicator for actual
investment demand in the pipeline. In this regard, the most comprehensive leading
indicators of aggregate demand are still the adjusted TSF growth 6 and the speed of
bank asset expansion.
5
See China Macro Brief, An update on “Where is fiscal policy going?” October 27, 2016; China Macro Thematic Report, Where may fiscal policy go
from here? September 1, 2016
6
Adjusted TSF growth = reported TSF + local government and sovereign bond outstanding. For the merit of using the “adjusted TSF”, please
refer to China Macro Brief, Impact of local government bond swap on loan and TSF data, August 13, 2015
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Part IV: What can be expected on the reform front?
We expect further progress to be made in the areas of fiscal, hukou , and land
refor ms to expedite China’s transit ion towards a more consumer-dr iven
economy . In this regard, we expect fur ther income tax reforms efforts towards
improving income distribution, including a higher minimum threshold for tax submission
and a more comprehensive income tax regime. Furthermore, we expect continued
initiatives to build out a more inclusive and equitable social security system, facilitated
by government subsidies and higher efficiency of social security fund management. On
the other hand, the burden of making social security contributions will likely be reduced
further for both the household and corporate sectors, while the potential increase in
subsidy for healthcare and education may continue to benefit lower income households.
Meanwhile, progress may be achieved in SOE refor ms in promot ing the
mixed ownership structure aiming at boosting t he efficiency of SOE
operation, building a mar ket-oriented framewor k for SOE exit, and reducing
state ownership in the sectors that are better served by a compet it ive
mar ket structure. We expect progress to be made in mixed ow nership structure
experiments in some key sectors, including telecom, transpor tation, energy, utilities,
healthcare and education. Policy initiatives over SOE exits and disposal of SOE NPLs will
continue to be carried out at a measured pace under market-oriented guidelines. In
addition, we will continue to watch for any progress made on the front of reducing SOE
dominance in the sectors that are classified as “competitive industries”.
Part V: Market implications and risks to our forecast
We see the risks to our 2017 growth and inflation forecasts as balanced. The
main macro and mar ket uncertainties lay in a sharper-than-expected correction in the
property mar ket; the potential risks associated with financial mar ket deleveraging and
stricter implementation of the MPA; and potential external demand volatilities given the
potential tail-risks associated with the upcoming political events.
Our baseline forecast is a more moderate macro impact from a slower property mar ket,
since 1) there has been limited impact on investment growth from the property boom
this time round, and 2) property inventory remaining low in leading cities and proper ty
developer cash flow remaining buoyant. However, a sharper correction in the proper ty
market triggered by harsher policies and/or slower growth may dampen the growth and
inflation outlook for 2017. Furthermore, there are still uncertainties associated with
market liquidity and asset prices with the expected full implementation of the new MPA
framework next year. We will continue to closely monitor the changes in short-term
market interest rates to gauge the potential liquidity risks associated with a more
prudent regulatory framework and the ongoing financial market deleveraging process.
Meanwhile, the upside risks to aggregate demand include faster-than
expected personal consumption and pr ivate invest ment growth on lower
“opportunity costs”; as well as stronger-than-expected recovery in global
demand. One key driving force of consumption and investment grow th next year is the
low and declining real interest rates for consumption and investment measured by the
alternative risk-free rates such as wealth management product yield. Furthermore, it is
worthwhile to closely monitor the magnitude of US fiscal expansion after the new
president takes command, as faster infrastr ucture investment grow th in the US is
welcome news for global grow th and liquidity conditions (assuming no significant
monetar y tightening in the US). In addition, it is also worthwhile to closely watch the
magnitude of further fiscal easing to gauge future grow th and inflation tren ds, since in
our view, the cumulative effect of sizable fiscal loosening in 2015 and 2016 may
continue to support investment demand in the near term.
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The growth structure and policy mix next year will likely benefit personal
consumpt ion the most, including consumer goods and services that cater towards
upgrading lower income and middle-class consumption, as well as discretionary
consumer sectors. In addition, secular growth sectors such as healthcare, education,
and new consumer services may present attractive investment opportunities.
We also expect a more stable macro backdrop and abundant liquidity to
support invest ment in the secular growth sectors and “new industr ies”,
including (but perhaps not limited to) those in the areas of technology and
communication, new consumer services, and financial services.
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Editing: Jim SATKO
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This CICC report is provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
China International Capital
Corporation Limited
China International Capital
Corporation Limited – Shanghai Branch
China International Capital
Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited
28th Floor, China World Office 2
1 Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100004, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 6505-1166
Fax: (86-10) 6505-1156
32nd Floor Azia Center
1233 Lujiazui Ring Road
Shanghai 200120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 5888-8976
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2872-2000
Fax: (852) 2872-2100
Shenzhen
Singapore
United Kingdom
China International Capital
Corporation Limited – Shenzhen Branch
China International Capital
Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited
China International Capital
Corporation (UK) Limited
#2503, 25th Floor, China Merchants Bank Tower
7088 Shennan Boulevard, Futian District
Shenzhen 518040, P.R. China
Tel: (86-755) 8319-5000
Fax: (86-755) 8319-9229
#39-04, 6 Battery Road
Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
Fax: (65) 6327-1278
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719
Beijing Jianguomenwai Avenue Branch
1st Floor, Capital Tower
6A Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8567-9238
Fax: (86-10) 8567-9235
Beijing Kexueyuan South Road Branch
6th Floor, Block A, Raycom Infotech Park
2 Kexueyuan South Road, Haidian District
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8286-1086
Fax: (86-10) 8286 1106
Shanghai Middle Huaihai Road Branch
398 Huaihai Road (M)
Shanghai 200020, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 6386-1195
Fax: (86-21) 6386-1180
Shanghai Defeng Road Branch
Room 1105, Building A
299-1 Defeng Road, Fengxian District
Shanghai 201400, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 6887-5123
Shenzhen Fuhuayilu Branch
Room 201, Annex Building
Shenzhen Duty Free Commercial Tower
6 Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District
Shenzhen 518048, P.R. China
Tel: (86-755) 8832-2388
Fax: (86-755) 8254-8243
Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Branch
1st Floor, Euro American Center
18 Jiaogong Road
Hangzhou 310012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-571) 8849-8000
Fax: (86-571) 8735-7743
Nanjing Hanzhong Road Branch
Section C, 30th Floor, Asia Pacific Tower
2 Hanzhong Road, Gulou District
Nanjing 210005, P.R. China
Tel: (86-25) 8316-8988
Fax: (86-25) 8316-8397
Guangzhou Tianhe Road Branch
40th Floor, Teemtower
208 Tianhe Road
Guangzhou 510620, P.R. China
Tel: (86-20) 8396-3968
Fax: (86-20) 8516-8198
Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch
1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center
Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East)
Chengdu 610021, P.R. China
Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188
Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010
Xiamen Lianyue Road Branch
4th Floor, Office Building, Paragon Center
1 Lianyue Road, Siming District
Xiamen 361012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-592) 515-7000
Fax: (86-592) 511-5527
Wuhan Zhongnan Road Branch
4301-B, Poly Plaza
99 Zhongnan Road, Wuchang District
Wuhan 430070, P.R. China
Tel: (86-27) 8334-3099
Fax: (86-27) 8359-0535
Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch
11th Floor, Shangri-La Center
Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District
Qingdao 266071, P.R. China
Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789
Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018
Chongqing Honghu Road (West) Branch
1st & 10th Floors, Ourui Lanjue Center
Block 9, Honghu Road (W), New North District
Chongqing 401120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088
Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636
Tianjin Nanjing Road Branch
10th Floor, Tianjin Global Trading Center
219 Nanjing Road, Heping District
Tianjin 300051, P.R. China
Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188
Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079
Dalian Gangxing Road Branch
16th Floor, Wanda Center
6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District
Dalian 116001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388
Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933
Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch
12th Floor, Trend International Business Building
2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District
Foshan 528000, P.R. China
Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588
Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299
Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch
2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science &
Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road
Xincheng Town, Xinxing County
Yunfu 527499, P.R. China
Tel: (86-766) 2985-088
Fax: (86-766) 2985-018
Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch
3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower
459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District
Changsha 410001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088
Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455
Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch
11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road
Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone
Ningbo 315103, P.R. China
Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288
Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328
Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch
38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building
No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District
Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088
Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050
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