NCICD: From Masterplanning to Implementation

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NCICD: From Masterplanning
to Implementation
Dr. Ir. Purba Robert M. Sianipar
Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs,
Republic of Indonesia
Jakarta, Indonesia
April 1, 2014
Contents
• Importance
• Vision & Strategy
• The NCICD Master Plan
• Costs and Organization
• Next steps
Emergency situation
Threat of
floods
Land subsidence
Lack of drinking water supply
Environmental degradation
Lack of
Space
Traffic
Congestion
Water
pollution
Flood risk
From the sea, 2007
From the rivers, 2013
…….. life continues
Pluit sea wall 18 October 2013
Population density
Water Pollution
What is at risk?
$ 200 billion value of real
estate and economic activity
Infrastructure
> 4 million people
Culture
Natural resources
Jakarta as Mega
Economic Center
Fisheries
Ports, industries
Tourism & leisure
industry
MP3EI targets at risk
From threats to opportunities
Integrated Development Vision
Urban area redevelopment
Economic
revitalization
Flood safety (from sea and rivers)
Eco system restoration
Infrastructure
connections
Improved living
environment
Land Reclamation)
Water resources development
NCICD Master Plan : an integrated
solution
NCICD flood safety strategy
A: upgrade existing flood defence : 2014-2017
B: design and construct outer sea wall West : 2016 – 2022
C: design and construct outer sea wall East: after 2030 (if necessary)
Principal solutions: dikes, retention ponds and
pumps
A
A
A
B
Stage A: strengthening of current seawall
Costs $ 2 billion
Priority locations
Pantai Kapuk
Muara
Karang
P. Mutiara,
Pluit
Kali Baru
Ancol
Marunda
High
Medium
Low
Stage B: Dike only
Costs $ 4.3 billion (without toll road)
Outer sea wall
DKI 17 islands
Plus:
$ 12 billion for sanitation
$ 4 billion for water supply
Stage B Integrated Development
Sea wall $ 4.73 billion
Private investments: $ 15 billion
Revenues: $ 30 billion
Plus:
$ 12 billion for sanitation
$ 4 billion for water supply
Overview of
Opportunities
The Planning Process
Capacity Development
Interaction
socialization
Design
Opportunities and Benefits
New future for old professions
Fishermen communities
Improved living conditions
Improved environmental quality
Leisure
Nature
Improved connectivity
Costs and Revenues
Costs Stage A
Revenues: NO
Benefits: YES
Revenues: Tariffs
Benefits: YES
Costs Stage B – Dike only
Short term revenues: NO
Long term revenues: YES
Benefits: YES
Costs Stage B Integrated
Revenues: YES
Benefits: YES
10000000
Costs and Revenues
Stage B Integrated Development
8000000
6000000
4000000
Revenue Transport
Investments
2016 – 2022
Revenue Land Reclamation/Port
Opex Transport
Opex Land Reclamation
2000000
Opex Safety
Capex Transport
-2000000
-4000000
-6000000
Revenues
from 2023
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
0
Capex Land reclamation / Port
Capex Safety
Is it Feasible?
• Required investments in the safety components in Stage B
amount up to $ 4.6 billion.
• Revenue generating investments in Stage B amount up to $
15 billion and generate revenues up to $ 30 billion (1250
hectares alternative)
• Stage B of NCICD may be developed on a full cost recovery
basis by a dedicated development company.
• GOI supports the development company with $ 1-2 billion of
equity (seed capital) and guarantees initial loans taken out by
the development company up to $ 6 billion.
Yes, it is feasible
• GOI can recoup its initial investments through
dividends and redemption of seed capital at a later
stage
• Eventually stage B can be delivered at minimal cost
to GOI
• Excess cash can be generated to cross subsidize stage
A components
 At continuous high economic growth
Organization
Steering
Committee
NCICD
Development Body
Land
Development
Authority
Regulation
Development
Company
Funding &
Execution
Access
Component 1
Policy
Dikes
Component 2
Implementation
Component 3
etc.
Requirements for Implementation
• Government leadership and
commitment from the highest level
• Organization to manage and
implement the program
• Long term funding commitments:
public and private
• Key role for private investors and
developers
• New partnerships, incentives, risk
sharing arrangements, and an
adjusted regulatory environment
• New knowledge and capacities to be
developed.
NCICD Development Company
Concessionaire
Contracting
Execution
Land Development
Transport/ Access
Tail,
Body +
Land side
islands
Toll
Road
Deep
seaport
Wings…x
Urban
Road
MRT
Safety & Environmental
Stage A
Dikes
Stage B
Seawall
Pumps
& Locks
Sewerage
&
Sanitation
Lagoon
Operation
(raw
water)
Management approach
• Flexibility because of the long term, the many uncertainties,
the high risks
• Scenario planning
• Implement no-regret measures
• Planning & Control in 5/3/1 year cycles with calibration
against targets, results, new conditions and new information.
• Strategic decision making process
• Learning organization
Long Term Planning
NCICD Indicative long term planning
Next steps
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Updating and finalizing the Master Plan
Stage B & C technical studies and surveys
Detailed spatial planning
Preparation of PPP business cases
Setting up Stage B Development Company
Develop supporting legislation and procedures
Prepare funding schemes
Develop knowledge/research agenda
Prepare social compensation schemes
Let’s act now for their future

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